South Africa’s annual consumer inflation rate edged slightly higher to 3.4% in September, up from 3.3% in August, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by Stats SA.
The monthly CPI increase was recorded at 0.2%.
What’s Driving the Rise?
The modest uptick in inflation was driven primarily by transport and restaurants & accommodation, while categories like food & non-alcoholic beverages (NAB), alcoholic beverages & tobacco, and furnishings showed signs of easing.
The standout figure for the month was meat inflation, which surged to 11.7% – its highest annual level since January 2018.
Notably:
- Stewing beef rose by a staggering 32.2% year-on-year, although it remained flat month-on-month
- Pork and lamb prices accelerated further
- Chicken, a staple for many households, also saw rising costs, with IQF chicken up 5.0%, boosted by a 1.1% monthly increase
Milk & Eggs Deflate Further
Contrasting the meat price hikes, the milk, dairy & eggs category remained in deflationary territory for a fourth consecutive month, down 1.6% year-on-year.
- A box of 18 eggs dropped to an average of R62.58, compared to R69.36 a year ago – a decrease of 8.2%
- Full-cream milk fell by 2.1%, while cheese prices rose, with Gouda and cheddar up over 6%
Cereal Products: A Mixed Bag
- White rice prices declined sharply by 7.8% year-on-year
- On the flip side, maize meal inflation rose to 9.5%, up from 8.2% in August
Non-Alcoholic Beverages (NAB) Slow Down
- NAB inflation cooled to 4.1%, down from 4.9% in August and significantly lower than the 9.5% seen in September 2024
- Price increases were highest for coffee (12.2%), canned fizzy drinks (7.8%), and black tea (7.1%)
- Fizzy drinks in bottles became 1.3% cheaper
Rentals on the Rise
September’s data also reflects the quarterly housing rental survey:
- Actual rentals rose by 3.2%, up from 3.0% in June
- Townhouse rentals surged 5.4%, while imputed rentals climbed to 3.0%
Transport Category Still in Deflation
Despite global oil concerns, the transport sector marked its 13th straight month of deflation:
- Overall, the category was down 0.1% year-on-year
- Fuel prices dropped 0.3% from August to September, with an annual decrease of 2.2%
- Motor vehicles became 1.4% more expensive, while passenger transport was 1.9% cheaper
Inflation Outlook
While inflation remains well within the Reserve Bank’s target range of 3%-6%, the volatility in meat, maize meal, and fuel prices continues to pose risks.
Households may feel relief in dairy and egg prices, but overall food inflation remains uneven across categories.
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to keep a cautious stance ahead of its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting in November, with analysts watching for global oil price movements and local currency performance.
What’s the one item you swear has never been as expensive as it is today?
Let us know by clicking on the comment banner below …
