The Springboks head into battle against on France on Saturday, with the nature of the result – one way or another – potentially set to have a significant impact at the top of the World Rugby rankings.
South Africa’s advantage at the top of the rankings is currently 1.20 points, but that buffer could be up to nearly five points if the Springboks beat France by more than 15 points in Saint-Denis and New Zealand lose by an equally significant margin to Scotland.
Conversely, if South Africa are beaten and New Zealand maintain their dominant record over Scotland, the sides will swap places with the All Blacks returning to the number one spot that they held for a four-week period during the Rugby Championship.
There’s lots of big Test match rugby on the go this weekend, and plenty of permutations to note.
Rankings preview as Springboks and France headline this weekend’s fixtures:
- Nine of the top 10 teams can improve their rating this weekend, the exception being Ireland who will not get any reward for beating Japan in Dublin due to the 15.60 rating points between the sides before home weighting is factored in.
- The Springboks are guaranteed to remain at number one in the rankings if they manage at least a draw with France at the Stade de France. A defeat would also be enough if New Zealand lose to Scotland for the first time in history.
- France will climb two places to third in victory, even if Ireland and England also win against lower-ranked opponents. This is because England can only gain a maximum of 0.02 rating points by beating Fiji at Allianz Stadium.
- Les Bleus can end the weekend in second – a position they have not occupied since October 2023 – if they win by more than 15 points and New Zealand lose.
- New Zealand cannot fall any lower than fourth place this weekend, while the lowest a beaten Ireland can slip to is fifth.
- An historic victory for Scotland may not be enough to improve on eighth place, unless Australia or Argentina above them fail to win. If this happens then Scotland will jump to sixth and into Band 1 for the Men’s Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw in December.
- England will lose fourth place to France in defeat, even if Les Bleus also fall to South Africa. However, England cannot fall any lower than fifth, even if Fiji win by more than 15 points.
- Argentina’s status as the last of the six teams currently positioned in Band 1 is reliant on them not losing to Wales in Cardiff. They could still lose and escape dropping out of the top six, but that would be dependent on the teams around them not winning.
- It is not possible for Los Pumas to improve on sixth place this weekend.
- Fiji could break into the top six for the first time since the rankings began in October 2003 if they beat England and Argentina and Australia fail to win.
- Australia are another team that could enter the top six this weekend if they beat Italy and Los Pumas are beaten in Cardiff.
- Italy can’t improve on 10th place even if they repeat their historic win over Australia a few years ago in Florence.
- Their place in the top 10 is secure in defeat, as a heavy defeat combined with a similar margin of victory for Wales will still give them a 0.02 rating point advantage over their Men’s Six Nations rivals.
- A draw would be enough for Wales to move up a place to 11th, with Georgia, who can’t gain any points for a win over the lower-ranked USA in Batumi, the side to fall.
- Wales will only fall from 12th – and into Band 3 – if they lose and Japan avoid defeat against Ireland.
- A shock loss for 11th-ranked Georgia at the hands of the USA will cost them two places, even if Wales and Japan are beaten. The Lelos would sit one place above the Eagles.
- Uruguay could jump by as many as four places to 15th if they beat Portugal and other results fall their way.
- Portugal are currently one place and 0.14 points behind Los Teros in the rankings, but will become the higher-ranked of the two nations should they win their meeting in Lisbon.
- A five-place gain to 15th is possible for Os Lobos if they win by more than 15 points.
- Samoa, in 16th, will not get any reward for beating Brazil in their opening RWC 2027 Final Qualification Tournament fixture, due to the 14.84 points between the sides.
- A defeat would not only be costly in terms of making it to Australia 2027, but could also lead to Samoa sliding down the rankings to an historic low as it is mathematically possible for them to drop to 20th. They have never been lower than 17th.
- A three-place rise to 29th is within Brazil’s reach if they make a winning start to their bid to qualify for a first Men’s Rugby World Cup.
- Elsewhere, Romania can’t make up enough ground with a win over Canada in Bucharest to break back into the world’s top 20.
- However, defeat for Romania will see the Oaks slip to a new low of 22nd if Belgium beat Namibia in the Final Qualification Tournament.
- A win for Canada will lift them above Hong Kong China and a losing Belgium into 22nd, but defeat will see them fall at least one place.
- Namibia are guaranteed to replace the Netherlands in 26th if they win in Dubai, with further gains possible depending on the margin and other results.
- Away from the Quilter Nations Series, November internationals and the Final Qualification Tournament, four additional matches count towards the rankings this weekend.
- Rating points are also riding on the outcomes of the men’s international between Colombia and Mexico, the Rugby Europe Men’s Trophy matches (Croatia v Czechia and Poland v Denmark) and Andorra v Israel in the Rugby Europe Men’s Conference.
- The Conference match between Slovakia and Austria will not count towards the rankings as the hosts are not a full member union of World Rugby.
VIEW WORLD RUGBY MEN’S RANKINGS >>
Kick off times for six big Tests this weekend
Saturday, 7 November
Ireland vs Japan – Aviva Stadium, Dublin – 14:40 (SA time)
Scotland vs New Zealand – Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh – 17:10
England vs Fiji – Twickenham Stadium, London – 19:40
Italy vs Australia – Bluenergy Stadium, Udine – 19:40
France vs South Africa – Stade de France, Paris – 22:10
Sunday, 8 November
Wales v Argentina – Principality Stadium, Cardiff – 17:10
