TOP flight football is about far more than who wins the league, and there are plenty of differing narratives across a Premier League season.
There is the race for a top four place and European qualification, who wins the domestic cups, and of course, the relegation dogfight.
The fight for survival can be one of the most exciting battles over the league season. In recent seasons, it’s been a bit of a foregone conclusion, but if we get a handful of teams in there, it’s just as exciting as the race to win the title.
The three promoted teams are often the ones to go down in their first campaign. And the latest Premier League relegation odds suggest Leeds United, Burnley and Sunderland are likely to do the same this season.
However, with Leeds and Burnley both having recent Premier League experience, they will feel they have the tools to beat the drop. As for Sunderland, they are effectively starting from scratch after an eight-year hiatus from top flight football.
Quick Premier League relegation bets for 2025/26
- Relegation treble – Sunderland, Burnley, and Brentford – 109/8 with bet365
- West Ham to stay up – 1/2 with Betfred
- Burnley to finish bottom – 6/4 with Betway
2025/26 Premier League relegation odds
- Burnley – 3/10
- Wolverhampton – 8/15
- Sunderland – 6/4
- West Ham – 6/4
- Nott Forest – 11/4
- Leeds – 3/1
- Brentford – 7/2
- Fulham – 9/1
- Everton – 14/1
- Aston Villa – 16/1
- Man City – 20/1
- Man Utd – 25/1
- Brighton – 33/1
- Crystal Palace – 33/1
- Bournemouth – 66/1
- Newcastle – 150/1
- Tottenham – 150/1
- Chelsea – 200/1
- Arsenal – 1000/1
- Liverpool – 1000/1
Odds provided by bet365 are subject to change.
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The current standings
The statistics are telling and play a part when bookies produce their latest Premier League relegation odds – before a ball was kicked, the three promoted clubs were once again seen as the most likely to go down.
Sunderland and Leeds have been impressive, however, winning five games between them before the international break. Burnley have also been competitive in what has been a tough run of games to start the season.
This has led to some movement in their respective relegation odds, with Wolves – the only team yet to win this season – dropping in price to second favourite for the drop. Poor starts for West Ham and Nottingham Forest, who have both already made changes in the dugout, have put them in jeopardy according to the bookies.
The promoted trio
The size of the task facing Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland won’t be lost on them. Highlighting the ever-increasing gulf in class between the bottom of the Premier League and the top of the Championship, the three promoted clubs have returned to the Championship at the first time of asking for the past two seasons.
Bridging the gap is getting more and more difficult. As well as needing to perform well above their own level, any promoted team looking to survive is now also needing an established Premier League club to perform way below their usual standard.
This is why the bookmakers had the promoted teams as their main favourites to be relegated this season. Below we assess their chances of survival in more detail:
Sunderland
Sunderland gained promotion via the playoffs in dramatic fashion, having finished 26 points behind Leeds and Burnley in the Championship last season. Late goals in both the semi-final and final saw the Black Cats clinch the final place in this season’s Premier League.
The Wearsiders were then dealt a huge blow almost immediately with the departure of Jobe Bellingham for Borussia Dortmund. The club then got the cheque book out and splashed out big fees on the likes of Simon Adingra (£20M), Habib Diarra (£30M), Enzo Le Fée (£20M), Noah Sadiki (£17.5M) and Chemsdine Talbi (£19M).
They’ve made a great start to life back in the big time with wins against West Ham, Brentford and Nottingham Forest, which will give them a huge boost ahead of the busy autumn and winter months. None of the promoted (and eventually relegated) trio won until October last season.
Despite the significant investment in the playing squad and having early points on the board, Régis Le Bris still faces one hell of a job keeping his team in the Premier League and that’s reflected in the fact that the bookies still rate them as one of the most likely three to go down.
Burnley
Burnley’s promotion campaign was built on the back of a solid defence. Scott Parker did an excellent job after taking over from Vincent Kompany, with his team only missing out on top spot to Leeds United on goal difference.
The Clarets scored 69 goals on their way to claiming 100 points, they were the third highest scorers in the division. However, their most telling statistic was conceding just 16 goals in 46 matches.
As they’ve quickly found out, replicating a record like that in the Premier League was never going to be possible – especially after losing James Trafford in goal and CJ Egan-Riley at centre back. Despite this, they have competed well in most games so far – both Liverpool and Manchester United needed late penalties to beat them.
At the other end of the pitch, Jaidon Anthony is right up there with the leading scorers in the league with four goals as of the October international break, but he’ll need several others to chip in.
Leeds United
Despite rumours about his job security, Daniel Farke has remained in charge at Elland Road and, bar a 5-0 hiding at the Emirates, his team have made a solid start on their Premier League return, winning two and drawing two of their opening seven games. It would’ve been three wins but for a late Bournemouth equaliser at Elland Road too.
The club bolstered their squad with big money arrivals from the Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1. Lucas Perri provides a much-needed upgrade in goal, while the likes of Jaka Bijol, Anton Stach and Sean Longstaff have strengthened the spine of the team.
The goals have been shared around so far, with striker Noah Okafor the only man to have found the net more than once. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who arrived on a free late in the window, opened his account in the away win at Wolves.
Last season’s strugglers
Two teams that found themselves flirting with the drop last season were Wolves and West Ham. Both comfortably survived in the end, but this was predominantly down to the shortcomings of the three promoted teams.
Despite being established in the Premier League, Wolves and West Ham can’t keep relying on the promoted clubs not being up to the required standard for their survival, and this season could be pivotal for both if significant improvements are not made.
Wolves
Wolves spent the first half of the season in the bottom three after failing to win a game until November, and they looked in serious trouble after a home defeat to Ipswich just before Christmas.
Following a change in manager which saw Vítor Pereira take over from Gary O’Neil, Wolves eventually pulled clear of the danger zone – winning six in a row in March and April.
However, the Black Country side suffered further setbacks over the summer, losing key men Matheus Cunha and Rayan Aït-Nouri. Cunha contributed 15 goals and six assists in 33 matches for the Old Gold last season – it’s unlikely anyone will be able to replicate these numbers.
Jørgen Strand Larsen has been signed permanently, but is yet to find the net since then. Brazilian winger Jhon Arias impressed at the Club World Cup for Fluminense and David Møller Wolfe has been a regular starter so far but these signings continue to look like big gambles.
West Ham United
West Ham decided they were ready to move on from the second David Moyes era last summer. His successor was Julen Lopetegui, but he only lasted until January, with the Hammers board finally having enough after reportedly coming close to firing the Spaniard twice earlier in the season.
Graham Potter was Lotetegui’s replacement. The former Brighton and Chelsea boss was unable to improve the mood around the London Stadium after picking up just ten points from their final 11 matches of the season. After a dismal start to this season, he too has now been sacked and Nuno Espírito Santo, just weeks after he was dismissed from Forest, is now at the helm.
The team should be good enough to avoid the drop, but will need to start picking up results quickly when the season resumes. They have Brentford, Leeds and Burnley coming up in their next four games.
Who might get dragged in?
Plenty of teams will be looking over their shoulders as the season goes on, and the bottom half tends to be much tighter than the top. Even those challenging for Conference League places may end up closer to the drop than the title points-wise.
Premier League football is unforgiving. The loss of a key player or even a manager can be the difference between survival and taking the plunge down to the Championship. Some of the teams that could get dragged into the relegation battle are:
Brentford
The Bees have lost Thomas Frank to Spurs. Frank, to Brentford, was more than just a manager; he was the heart and soul of their time in the Premier League.
Brentford struggled on the road in the first half of the 2024/25 season. Had that poor form continued – and started to affect their usually strong home performances – they could’ve been dragged into a relegation battle. This was never likely to happen under the guidance of Frank, and Brentford found their rhythm in the second half of the season and comfortably stayed up.
Brentford are beginning to adapt to life without the Dane. Rookie manager Keith Andrews has already picked up some notable results at home – beating Manchester United and securing a point against Chelsea. They’re yet to pick up a point on their travels, however.
Andrews also has the unenviable task of replacing the 39 goals which Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa scored between them last season. Brazilian striker Igor Thiago has started the season well, scoring four times in seven games but will need to keep going at that pace to keep Brentford away from danger.
Fulham
The Cottagers had an outstanding 2024/25 season under Marco Silva, finishing 11th on 54 points. It felt like a season of overachievement, and with very little activity in the transfer market, they could be a club that slides this season.
Back-to-back wins against Leeds and Brentford after the last international break helped kickstart their season, after a return of just two points from the first three games. Defeats at Villa and Bournemouth followed, however, and they’re set to face Arsenal and Newcastle in the next couple of weeks.
Everton
After a series of great escapes, Everton are playing Premier League football at their new home at Bramley-Moore Dock this season, and they have settled in quickly – winning two and drawing two of their first four games in the new surroundings.
Under David Moyes, any fears of dropping to the Championship before or after the change of address have been eased for the time being, but things may get trickier down the road if visiting teams start enjoying playing at the new ground – which doesn’t have the same intimate and hostile feel of Goodison Park.
We’ve seen before how clubs can find it hard to adapt to life in a new home. West Ham really struggled in the first couple of seasons at the London Stadium, and if home results were to turn for Everton, they would soon find themselves under pressure.
The bookmakers see Everton as one of those teams who could get dragged into a dogfight, but they are not one of the favourites to go down.
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace ended the 2024/25 season in sensational fashion, capping off their strong run of form with a memorable victory in the FA Cup Final. As a result, the Eagles are competing in Europe this season.
It is perhaps because of this, coupled with the loss of talisman Eberechi Eze, that bookmakers still view Palace as a team who could potentially get sucked into trouble.
On early evidence, however, fans of The Eagles will have nothing to worry about. They were the last team in the entire league to suffer a defeat this season – plus they’ve had a huge win against Liverpool to celebrate.
My Premier League relegation betting tips
Preseason bets can be hard to pick ahead of the transfer window closing, but they can also offer some great value if you can get them right. Using the latest odds on Premier League relegation, I’ve listed my best relegation bets below:
Relegation treble – Sunderland, Burnley, and Brentford
Despite their excellent start, many feel Sunderland are due a slump and they’re still priced at 6/4 to go down (with bet365). Burnley are the odds-on favourite at 3/10 and should the goals dry up for Igor Thiago at Brentford, adding them in here at 7/2 could make for a decent-value treble.
Brentford have been significantly weakened with the loss of Thomas Frank in the dugout and Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa on the pitch. While home performances and results have remained positive so far, it doesn’t look like the Bees will win many points on their travels.
While Burnley have given all their opponents a tough game so far, they don’t look like having enough quality to ultimately win very many.
Pick Sunderland, Burnley, and Brentford in the relegation treble at 109/8 with bet365
West Ham to stay up
With the Hammers suffering heavy defeats to Sunderland, Chelsea and Tottenham in the opening weeks of the season, the club decided to cut ties with Graham Potter and moved quickly to appoint Nuno Espírito Santo.
The team that the former Forest and Wolves manager inherits should have enough quality to pull away from danger, and he was able to start his tenure with a point away at Everton.
Currently they’re priced at 1/2 to stay up, but that could get drastically shorter in a few weeks’ time after West Ham have played Brentford, Leeds and Burnley.
Back Nuno to keep West Ham up at 1/2 with Betfred
Burnley to finish bottom
With Wolves making such a poor start, the bookies feel it is a two-horse race between themselves and Burnley to finish bottom. It does increasingly feel like Wolves’ eight-year stint in the top flight is coming to an end, but their results will surely pick up slightly.
As the season goes on, while they may pick up a point or three here and there, I struggle to see how Burnley string together results and they’ll eventually finish bottom of the pile.
Tip Burnley to finish bottom at 6/4 with Betway
What are the keys to beating the drop?
This is the multi-million pound question, and one that many have sought to find the answer to.
When Nottingham Forest were promoted in 2022, they stayed up the following season with 38 points, four more than Leicester, who finished third bottom and were relegated.
Forest literally bought a new squad for their first season back in the Premier League. It was a risky strategy, but it paid off. However, if they had gone down, the club would have been in dire trouble.
To avoid such risks while trying to survive, promoted clubs need to improvise. Shrewd signings are required, the sort that could not only do a job in the Premier League, but also in the Championship if the worst case scenario does occur.
Promoted clubs also need to quickly learn how to navigate the Premier League and focus on the key fixtures.
Sam Allardyce was an expert at this. He treated Premier League survival like a game of chess, knowing when to go on the front foot and target points, and when to take a damage-limiting defeat, as he realised goal difference could be a deciding factor at the end of the season.
Those who can master that have the better chances of staying up. Although, even implementing the above doesn’t guarantee anything these days.
How to follow the latest Premier League news and results
Staying informed about all things Premier League is vitally important from a betting perspective.
As well as checking results, it’s also important to keep an eye on websites that offer statistical advice. You may see that a team won 1-0 last weekend, but if you look at the statistics and see their opponents had 66% of the possession and 12 shots on goal, to the winning team’s two, you can get a feel for making a better informed bet on that team’s fixture the following weekend.
Checking team news for injuries and suspensions is a no brainer. Here at The Sun, we bring you all the latest news and base our tips on all the advice we have covered here, and we look for the best odds among football betting sites.
One final bonus tip is to check the following fixtures for the team you are betting on – this is especially important once the European competitions are up and running. There’s nothing worse than backing a team to win on Saturday, only to discover their star striker is on the bench – rested for a Champions League clash you didn’t even realise was coming up.
Premier League 2025/26 FAQs
1. How often has a change of manager helped a team climb out and away from relegation trouble?
Changing managers midseason can sometimes be a masterstroke and sometimes end in disaster. A managerial change can quite often spark an upturn in form, but it’s not a guaranteed fix.
It worked for Wolves last season, who sacked Gary O’Neil and replaced him with Vítor Pereira. It didn’t pay off for Leicester City however, who sacked Steve Cooper and replaced him with Ruud van Nistelrooy.
2. Can progress in the cups hinder a team’s chances of surviving?
Good cup runs have mixed results. Extra games can increase the work toll on players and result in fatigue, this can be dangerous for teams with small squads. The upside is that it can boost confidence, potentially leading to stronger league performances.
3. How many points is usually enough to stay up?
It has been tradition for many years that 40 points is enough to keep teams in the Premier League. However, this number has been decreasing in recent years, with 34-36 having been more than enough in recent times.
4. Is it still rare for teams to survive after being bottom at Christmas?
Yes, it is still very rare for teams who are bottom of the table at Christmas to survive in the Premier League. The last team to achieve this was Wolverhampton Wanderers. They were bottom of the table at Christmas 2022, but produced a remarkable recovery to finish 13th.
Read more about the 2025/26 football season
About the author
Craig Mahood
Craig Mahood is an expert in sports betting and online casinos and has worked with the company since 2020. He joined the Betting & Gaming team at The Sun in June 2022 and works closely with the leading bookmakers and online gaming companies to provide content on all areas of sports betting and gaming. He previously worked as a Digital Sports Reporter at the Scottish Sun, covering Scottish football with particular focus on Celtic and Rangers, As well as football, he has covered horse racing, boxing, darts, the Olympics and tennis for the Sun.
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