Mpumalanga residents face several days of disruptive weather after the South African Weather Service (SAWS) issued an Orange Level 6 warning for severe thunderstorms. The warning applies to the Lowveld and escarpment areas, where intense rainfall could trigger flooding and related damage.
SAWS confirmed that the severe conditions are expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday, placing communities on high alert.
According to the service, “Level 6 Warnings involve a high-level chance of significant impact,” signalling the potential for dangerous weather-related incidents.
Low-pressure system driving prolonged rainfall in Mpumalanga
The severe weather forms part of a broader system developing over southern Mozambique. SAWS said “an intense low-pressure system is expected to develop over the southern parts of Mozambique in the coming days” before moving southwards.
Forecasts indicate that unsettled conditions could persist until Thursday, 15 January, thereby increasing the risk of cumulative rainfall and saturated ground.
The escarpment and Lowveld areas of Mpumalanga remain the most vulnerable due to their topography, which can accelerate runoff and worsen flooding during prolonged rain events.
Forecast uncertainty raises concern
While forecasters agree on the likelihood of significant rainfall, uncertainty remains about how severe conditions may become. SAWS cautioned that “there remains significant uncertainty regarding the exact placement of the core of the system, which directly influences where the heaviest rainfall is expected.”
Some forecast models suggest the system’s core will remain east of South Africa, over southern Mozambique.
“The first scenario would result in relatively lower rainfall amounts,” SAWS explained. However, other models indicate the system could track closer to the country, raising an alarm.
In that case, SAWS warned that rainfall totals could be extreme, with “very high amounts, potentially totalling several hundreds of millimetres in some places.”
The weather service said it will continue monitoring developments closely and provide updates as conditions evolve.
“The SAWS continues to closely monitor this situation and will be providing regular updates as new information becomes available,” it said.
