Relations between South Africa and the United States have reached a new low, with analysts warning that diplomatic friction is likely to persist throughout the remaining three years of President Donald Trump’s administration.
The tension stems largely from Pretoria’s stance on Israel and its role in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) case alleging that Israel’s actions in Gaza may constitute genocide – a position sharply criticised by Washington.
Diplomatic Dispute Escalates
The dispute has spilled into public view, with US Senator Marco Rubio and South African Minister of International Relations Ronald Lamola exchanging pointed letters and statements.
In his response to Rubio, Lamola reiterated South Africa’s independent foreign policy.
“We do not seek your approval for our path. Our path is our own, chosen by our people and guided by our sovereign laws. But we do seek, and we will always extend, a hand of respectful partnership.”
Targeted Sanctions ‘Inevitable’, Analysts Say
While a complete diplomatic breakdown is considered unlikely, experts say targeted sanctions and visa restrictions against prominent South African political figures have become increasingly probable.
Individuals cited by analysts as possible targets include:
- Naledi Pandor, former Minister of International Relations
- Ebrahim Rasool, former South African ambassador to the US
- Julius Malema, Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader
Commentators argue that such measures would allow the US to signal a tough stance without damaging broader trade or security ties.
They also suggest that pressure from American constituencies – including Afrikaner lobby groups – is shaping congressional attitudes.
According to Citizen, independent political commentator Dr Tshwale said the US is likely to make the first move.
“The US will act first to impose on South Africa, seeking submission on its policy position. But South Africa isn’t prepared to submit because it believes it cannot compromise on principles.”
Tshwale added that congressional bills targeting senior ANC-linked individuals indicate sanctions are increasingly likely.
Why Washington and Pretoria Remain at Odds
The fundamental disagreement goes beyond domestic political groups.
Pretoria’s legal campaign against Israel at the ICJ – and its broader criticism of US Middle East policy – has placed the two governments on sharply divergent paths.
North-West University analyst Dominic Maphaka said full bans on ministers are improbable, but warned that “further retaliation and punitive steps” could emerge from Washington.
Experts note that despite the tension, neither state is expected to sever ties completely.
The US remains a global superpower and key investor, while South Africa holds regional influence as the continent’s most industrialised economy.
Potential Impact on South Africa
Analysts warn that sanctions could hurt South Africa’s international investment climate, particularly as advocacy groups lobby for Washington to exert greater pressure on Pretoria.
Social media commentary reflects a divided public mood, with some South Africans praising the government for defending sovereignty and principles, while others fear economic repercussions amid an already fragile economy.
A Prolonged Standoff Expected
With diplomatic rhetoric hardening and neither government prepared to shift positions, analysts say the dispute is likely to continue for the duration of the Trump administration.
While cooperation between the two countries remains necessary, tensions over foreign policy, sovereignty, and Israel will continue shaping their interactions.
