The Springboks could, potentially, find themselves in the ‘group of death’ at Rugby World Cup 2027.
South Africa will this week know which teams they will face in the group stages of the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
The all-important draw will take place on Wednesday, 3 December in Sydney at 11:00 (SA time).
Let’s take a look at the worst-case scenario for coach Rassie Erasmus and captain Siya Kolisi.
WORST POSSIBLE GROUP FOR THE SPRINGBOKS
In previous tournaments going back to Rugby World Cup 2003, we have traditionally had 20 teams that were divided into four pools of five teams.
The top two teams from each pool would then progress to the quarter-finals, which was the first round of the knockouts.
However, at Australia 2027 we will have 24 teams, and therefore the tournament requires a new format and one big change: a Round of 16 as the first knockout game.
What is the format?
There will now be six pools with four teams in each. The top two teams from each pool will progress to the Round of 16, while the four best third-place teams will also progress.
Those four teams will be determined by competition points firstly, and if that doesn’t separate the sides then points difference and try difference will be the next factors used respectively to determine which teams make it out of the pool stage.
How will the Round of 16 work?
In previous formats, the quarter-finalists would just be the winners of each pool against the runners-up of another pool.
With six pools feeding 16 spots in the first round of the knockouts, that requires some changes.
First, have a look at this graphic which shows the road to the final:
As you can see, the teams that finish top of Pool A, B, C and D will face a third-place team in the Round of 16, while the teams that finish top of Pool E and F will face teams that finished second in their pool.
Likewise, some teams that finished second in their pool may face the winner of another pool, while some will face the runners-up.
While on the surface that may seem slightly unfair, that imbalance is addressed in the next round.
Let’s take Pool A and Pool E as an example.
The team that wins Pool A will face a third-place team in the Round of 16, but in the quarter-finals could potentially meet the winner of Pool B if that team wins their Round of 16 match.
On the other hand, the team that wins Pool E will face a runner-up rather than a third-place team in the Round of 16, but in the quarter-finals would face the winner of a quarter-final between two other runners-up.
So while the winner of Pool A would face a third-ranked team and then potentially a top-ranked team in their games, the winner of Pool E would face second-ranked teams in both games.
There’s therefore no advantage or disadvantage to be gained or lost regardless of your team’s raking at the end of the pool stage, it will all even out in the end.
How does the draw work?
The World Rugby rankings at the end of the November internationals will be used to create four bands of six teams, with each band drawn randomly into Pool A, B, C, D, E or F.
There is only one exception to all this: Australia already know they are in Pool A as they are host nation and will therefore contest the opening game on 1 October 2027.
The Wallabies are currently in Band 2, which means a team from Band 1 will be drawn and placed in Pool A, and they would automatically be joined by Australia.
That means, potentially, the Springboks could be drawn in Pool A alongside Australia. As per the World Rugby rankings, Georgia (from Band 3) and Samoa (from Band 4) would together form the toughest group on paper.
THE FOUR BANDS CONFIRMED FOR THE DRAW
Band 1 – South Africa, New Zealand, England, Ireland, France, Argentina
Band 2 – Australia, Fiji, Scotland, Italy, Wales, Japan
Band 3 – Georgia, Spain, USA, Uruguay, Chile, Tonga
Band 4 – Samoa, Portugal, Romania, Hong Kong China, Zimbabwe, Canada
