The G20 Summit in Johannesburg this weekend is shaping up to become a diplomatic tug-of-war that signals shifts between global power blocs, with the potential to completely re-align trade and diplomacy. This will have massive implications for the world economy, particularly for emerging nations.
In a shock announcement two weeks ago, the White House initially declared that the US would boycott the Summit. President Trump lambasted the South African government, accusing it without credible evidence of human rights abuses – charges that the country firmly denies.
Furthermore, the US does not agree with South Africa’s G20 priorities of debt relief, just energy transition, climate change and inclusive development.
European diplomats warned that a US boycott could undermine the credibility of multilateralism and the credibility of the G20 Summit itself, especially as the US will take over the chairmanship of the G20 formation from South Africa.
‘We will not be bullied’ – International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola
However, Ramaphosa and his government were publicly defiant, asserting that the summit would move ahead without the US and that they would not be told what to do by an absent power. Brazil backed South Africa’s stance; Europe and the EU indicated cautious support; and developing nations viewed this as a chance to press their agenda without US dominance.
By insisting on a boycott while still attempting to control the outcome, the US risks alienating key partners.
But South Africa is also taking a big risk by defying the US and moving ahead with the Declaration. While it hopes to drive its ‘Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability’ agenda in stark contrast to the US isolationist stance, that might lead to fragmentation, or make way for other powers such as China and Russia to assert dominance.
An apparent U-turn
Last night, in a seeming about-turn, the White House announced that they would, indeed, send a delegation. This was so in keeping with the Trump administration policy flip-flopping that it was accepted without question. According to a statement by the South African government, the White House had signalled a ‘change of mind’ and was discussing joining ‘in one shape or another’.
But the White House strongly denied that, calling the reports ‘fake news’ and confirming that there would be no US participation in the G20 talks. The intention was only to send a ‘chargé d’affaires’ to accept the chairmanship. They warned that they still opposed a formal declaration without US agreement.
Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt further criticized Ramaphosa’s remarks as “running his mouth,” reaffirming the U.S. position.
Ramaphosa responded sharply, saying that he would not hand over the Summit Chair to a ‘chargé d’affaires’, as that would be acceding to a diplomatic snub. He is also firmly committed to a leader’s declaration, regardless of US disapproval.
Why this G20 Summit matters
For the last 80 years, the world economy has been built on global trade agreements. Since Donald Trump became US president, he has reversed this position: imposing random tariffs, withdrawing from international treaties, alienating historical allies and forging links with authoritarian governments. By boycotting the G20 Summit, the US is further contributing towards global fragmentation and re-alignment.
Climate change, debt relief, trade agreements and multilateralism might not be priorities for the US, but they are crucially important for developing countries such as South Africa. They are most at risk from climate change; they are disproportionately burdened with debt; and any disruption to global trade will result in rising prices.
Ramaphosa is gambling on a successful Summit without the US, which would elevate South Africa’s role in global governance. If he fails – or compromises too much – he could risk having the Summit discredited as a missed opportunity. It would also set a precedent that the US could in future skip global summits while still demanding influence over the outcomes.
If he succeeds, however, this would be a real win for the Global South and multilateral reform and would signal a global power shift. It will encourage emerging countries to push harder for reform.
