South Africans are continuing to migrate in large numbers from the Eastern Cape, Limpopo, and Free State to the country’s two economic hubs – Gauteng and the Western Cape – according to Statistics South Africa’s (Stats SA) latest 2025 mid-year population estimates.
The data, which covers provincial migration streams from 2021 to 2026, reveals that several provinces are experiencing significant population outflows, while others – especially Gauteng and the Western Cape – continue to attract new residents at record levels.
Provinces losing the most people
The Eastern Cape remains the country’s biggest exporter of residents, with nearly half a million people expected to leave the province between 2021 and 2026.
Only 198 700 people are expected to move in during that same period, resulting in a net migration loss of almost 300 000 people.
Similarly, Limpopo is projected to lose around 433 700 residents, while gaining only 276 100 newcomers, leaving it with a net loss of about 157 700 people.
The Free State is also recording more outflows than inflows, with a modest net loss of around 13 000 residents over the five-year period.
Migration winners
On the other hand, Gauteng – the country’s economic heartland – remains the top destination for internal migrants, attracting over 1.4 million people while losing just over 629 000.
This gives it a net gain of nearly 787 000 residents.
The Western Cape follows as the second-most attractive province, drawing 500 000 in-migrants while losing 181 000, resulting in a net gain of about 319 000 people.
Smaller positive migration trends were also recorded in:
- North West: +108 000
- Mpumalanga: +82 000
- KwaZulu-Natal: +31 000
- Northern Cape: +7 000
Provincial migration balance (2021–2026)
| Province | Out-migrants | In-migrants | Net migration |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gauteng | 629 301 | 1 416 204 | +786 903 |
| Western Cape | 181 393 | 500 347 | +318 953 |
| KwaZulu-Natal | 317 706 | 349 182 | +31 476 |
| Mpumalanga | 219 958 | 302 450 | +82 492 |
| North West | 196 988 | 305 410 | +108 422 |
| Northern Cape | 84 295 | 91 526 | +7 232 |
| Free State | 160 536 | 147 558 | −12 978 |
| Limpopo | 433 748 | 276 056 | −157 692 |
| Eastern Cape | 498 149 | 198 686 | −299 462 |
Source: Statistics South Africa – 2025 Mid-Year Population Estimates
Economic opportunity and service delivery driving shifts
Analysts say migration trends continue to be shaped by economic opportunity, service delivery, and access to jobs and education.
Gauteng’s role as the country’s commercial centre, and the Western Cape’s reputation for quality infrastructure and governance, remain key pull factors.
By contrast, provinces with higher unemployment rates and limited economic diversification, such as the Eastern Cape and Limpopo, struggle to retain residents – particularly younger workers seeking better prospects elsewhere.
A reshaping population map
Stats SA’s migration data underscores the ongoing reshaping of South Africa’s population map, with urbanisation and interprovincial mobility continuing to concentrate people – and economic activity – in just a few key provinces.
Demographers warn that unless struggling regions can improve education, job creation, and municipal governance, the flow of talent and labour will likely continue in the same direction over the next decade.
