Bafana Bafana face Rwanda on Tuesday at Mbombela Stadium, looking to seal qualification to FIFA World Cup 2026.
Kick-off is at 18:00.
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Hugo Broos’s side disappointingly drew 0-0 with Zimbabwe last Friday night, which felt like two points dropped given that they hit the woodwork twice, had an effort cleared off the line and played 33% of the game with a man advantage.
The result gave Benin a two-point advantage going into Matchday 10, but Bafana Bafana are still favoured to qualify (by the bookmakers at least) come Tuesday round 20:00.
It’s a familiar tale of last game permutations when it comes to the national team and major tournaments.
But what has to happen for South Africa to qualify to right for their first World Cup since 2002 in Japand and South Korea?
We took our calculators so you don’t have to …
How are teams separated if they are level on goals:
Only three teams (from six) from Group C can still qualify.
Bafana Bafana (2nd) will play Rwanda (4th) at the same time as Nigeria (3rd) hosts Benin (1st).
This is a FIFA-organised tournament, so teams with equal points are separated by:
- Goal difference [which favours Benin ahead of kick-off]
- Then if that is level, goals scored [Bafana Bafana level with Benin]
- Then if that is level, (various) head-to-head criteria [all favour Bafana Bafana and will not change in the final game-week]
What Bafana can not afford:
Bafana will miss out on qualification if they:
- Lose on Tuesday (irrespective of the other game’s result)
- Draw on Tuesday (irrespective of the other game’s result)
- Win on Tuesday, and Benin also win (irrespective of the winning margins)
Only a Bafana Bafana win, COUPLED WITH Benin’s failure to win, will help on Tuesday, with variations in winning margins and the other scoreline combining for a ticket to FIFA World Cup 2026.
Bafana 1st path (Bafana Bafana Win & Nigeria beat Benin)
The most straightforward path for Bafana Bafana is one where Nigeria beats Benin AND Bafana beat Rwanda by any scoreline.
This combination of results sends Bafana straight to next year’s tournament with no goal-difference complications.
If bookmakers’ odds are anything to go by, this is seen as the most likely outcome. Bookmakers’ implied probabilities give Bafana Bafana an 83% chance of beating Rwanda, and Nigeria a 77% chance of beating Benin at home (Benin has an 11% chance of victory).
That said, Bafana’s odds were similar against Zimbabwe last week, only for that game to end 0-0!
Bafana’s 2nd path (Bafana Win & Nigeria draw with Benin)
The other path for Bafana is a win accompanied by a Benin and Nigeria draw.
In the case where Benin draw, Bafana Bafana must win by the ‘correct’ scoreline.
We’ve broken a few of these down below:
- Benin draw and Bafana win with a clean sheet: Should Bafana Bafana win with a clean sheet, a 2-0 victory will be sufficient provided Benin score no more than twice in their draw. However, if Benin score 3+ goals in their draw, Bafana Bafana will need to match or exceed that total.
- Benin draw and Bafana Bafana win but concede one goal: Should Bafana Bafana win while conceding one goal, a 3-1 victory will be sufficient provided Benin score no more than three times in their draw. Yet, if Benin score 4+ goals in their draw, Bafana Bafana will need to match or exceed that total.
- Benin draw and Bafana Bafana win but concede two goals: Should Bafana Bafana win while conceding two goals, a Bafana Bafana 4-2 victory will be sufficient provided Benin score no more than 4 times in their draw. Yet, if Benin score 5+ goals in their draw, Bafana Bafana will need to match or exceed that total.
Bafana Bafana’s closed path
There is another path open for teams that finish second in their group.
The top-four best finishers enter a playoff that leads to an inter-continental playoff with a possible “wildcard” ticket to FIFA World Cup 2026.
However, with Eritrea’s exit from qualifying affecting the number of teams in their group, CAF and FIFA are excluding the points earned by each team against the last-placed team in each group when determining the four best runners-up.
In Bafana Bafana’s case, the four points gained versus Zimbabwe are not considered in their bid to be a top runner-up.
Will Bafana Bafana fans be celebrating qualifying for FIFA World Cup 2026 come the final whistle in Mbombela on Tuesday evening?
Let us knw by clicking on the comments banner below …
